WHILE THE PEOPLE of Thailand shiver under an unexpected cold spell, the Indonesians rescue survivors from a bout of storms, and Filipinos prepare with dread for another year of worsening typhoons, the Burmese are trying to restore their lives and livelihoods after the devastation of Typhoon Nargis, and at the lower end of the Mekong River, Cambodians are fighting a rising number of malaria cases.
But the cause of all this, the greatest environmental threat of all time, climate change (and how to prevent its catastrophic affects in Southeast Asia) is not on the agenda of the Asean leaders' annual jamboree in Hua Hin next month.
Instead, what is expected to dominate the discussions of the Asean leaders is tit-for-tat border disputes, the global recession, acrimonious free-trade negotiations and rice stockpiling. This in a year when the world is hoping that leaders will be able to hammer out a treaty at the UN Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen in December to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions while extending assistance for adaptation and mitigation to developing countries.
Established in 1967, Asean represents the aspirations of about 600 million people who occupy about 4.5 million square kilometres of land, some of it heavily forested and much of it along coastlines that are already suffering from a rise in sea level. The United Nation's Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recognised that the majority of people in Asean member countries are amongst the most vulnerable and least equipped to deal with climate change.
This is a fact that seems to always escape the attention of Asean leaders, evident in the poor quality of their interventions at key UN meetings on climate change in Bali in 2007 and Poznan, Poland in December 2008.
According to the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, the lowest stabilisation scenario requires global greenhouse gas reductions of 50 to 80 per cent from 1990 levels. The lower end of this range, the much discussed goal of a 50-per-cent reduction, still carries with it an unacceptably high risk (26-78 per cent) of exceeding a 2-degrees centigrade temperature increase.
Reaching the global goal will require emissions reductions by developed countries of more than 80 per cent in order to ensure that developing countries have a fair share of the atmospheric space to develop. In the near-term, global emissions need to peak by 2015, and emissions reductions in the top end of the 25-40 per cent range need to be achieved by developed countries by 2020.
No country alone can take sufficient action to stabilise CO2 concentration but some countries can clearly contribute more than others and the historically responsible major emitters must be held to account for their past actions (the polluter pays principle) and act to prevent even more harm (the precautionary principle).
The reality is that we require international cooperation and coordination to comprehensively and effectively deal with climate change.
Of course there is a need for a mixture of legally binding targets for richer and more able countries, and policies for limiting emissions and supporting mitigation action in developing countries.
But we also need early and rapid emissions limitations in the large emitters of the developing world, and very rapid technological change and scaled-up technology transfer.
Although the progressive stance of the many developing countries that agreed to take "measurable, reportable and verifiable" action at the Poznan UN Climate Meeting in December last year is appreciated, it can only be realised with technical and financial support from developed countries.
And this is the opportunity that the Asean member countries should consider en bloc at Copenhagen in December this year. Instead of toeing the line, as they have done in the past negotiations, there is a real opportunity for Asean countries to come together to demand massive technology transfers for renewable energy and energy efficiency, funding to end deforestation in developing countries and, most importantly, adequate funding for adaptation.
It is the moral obligation of the developed countries to meet this demand, and they have very little choice but to adhere.
In order to secure a strong climate deal, it is critical that industrialised countries are not allowed to offset needed emissions reductions through direct trading of forests within carbon markets. It is important that the current Reduced Emissions for Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) proposal on the table also respects the land, resource use, and ownership rights of forest peoples, with direct engagement in the design of the mechanism and its implementation.
One hopes that the Asean leaders recognise that the economic recession and financial crisis is a short-term risk, and that it can enable governments to shift investments towards a future carbon-free economy to secure long-term climate protection.
In the midst of difficulty lies opportunity. If the Asean leaders are smart, they will consider a community for climate protection to ensure economic, food, environmental and socio-cultural security and peace.
Shailendra Yashwant is campaign director of Greenpeace Southeast Asia. Contact: shailendra@greenpace.org
